p>A base on the Lebanese coast under the protection of Beirut’s Syrian overlords would enable Teheran to project power southwards towards Israel, northwards towards Turkey and westwards towards Europe. Teheran hopes this would significantly increase its standing and prestige in the predominantly Sunni Arab world by succeeding in pressuring Israel into accepting a humiliating and unfavorable settlement, something the Arab world has singularly failed to achieve.
Such a base would also enable Iran to initiate terror attacks against France and other European countries, to intimidate them into not joining the US in targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, either via sanctions or military action. It could also serve a base to mount attacks on the vital Turkish oil port of Ceyhan, the planned major terminus of future pipelines designed to lessen the West’s dependence on Middle East oil by piping oil from the newly discovered Caspian Sea oilfield.
With such a strategy in mind, Iran has, according to intelligence sources, increased its cooperation with al Qaeda. As previously mentioned, its Hezbullah proxy has already allowed a small force of al Qaeda operatives to set up base in Gaza, and perhaps in the West bank as well.
It was these developments that have prompted the renewed demands on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. Once the Syrian military leaves Lebanon, Beirut can begin reasserting its sovereignty, bringing Hezbullah to heel. Without Hezbullah, Iran loses its Lebanese base, hence by challenging Syria the US is issuing a new challenge to Iran, after having called its bluff by going after al Sadr’s ragtag Mehdi army.