a misleading impression of ordered hierarchy. Public dissent is impossible, and private disputes are, even for the powerful, one-way passes to labour camps. But there are unmistakable if necessarily sketchy indications of chronic and worsening tensions within the regime.
Beijing is undoubtedly aware of a recent note circulated to senior Workers’ Party cadres, reporting the theft of several thousand weapons from military depots and, linked to these thefts, the murder of 200 high-ranking officers by attackers who dispersed before they could be captured. High-ranking party members no longer go out late at night and have asked for camouflaged guards to ward off attacks.
In the ranks of North Korea’s 1.2 million-strong military, indiscipline bred of deprivation and hunger is spreading despite Kim’s vaunted “military first” policy. Soldiers raid food stores and sell surplus rations to even hungrier civilians. There is rampant smuggling of military equipment and fuel across the supposedly closely policed border with China. Patrol boats have been stranded at sea because sailors had pumped out the fuel tanks and filled them up with water. Factory managers and the secret police are into similar rackets, stripping factories idled for want of fuel and raw materials.
With Kim, it’s difficult to tell how much is cunning and how much is desperation. Of course if the whole thing was a dud, then it’ll turn into farce.
Update: more on the problems of a collapsing regime:
As the United Nations Security Council mulls sanctions against North Korea, it must consider one question that could affect the stability of North Asia for years to come: Would the collapse of Kim Jong Il’s government prove more dangerous than leaving him in charge of a nuclear-armed state?
The prospect of regime change in Pyongyang may cheer many in Washington who view Mr. Kim as running a militarist regime that has tortured and starved its own people and traded missiles to Pakistan, Iran, Syria and others. But turmoil in North Korea could damage the economies of China and South Korea, set off a refugee crisis and lead to military conflict.
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