His recent secretive trip to Southern China suggests that the Great Leader is thinking of taking his country down the same capitalist road the Chinese have embarked on – or is being pressured in that direction by the Chinese leadership. But North Korea isn’t China:
In his latest trip, Mr. Kim’s entourage included many economic officials presumably raring to replicate Chinese-style reforms at home.
This time, he visited special economic zones and singled them out in a speech at a banquet organized in his honor by President Hu Jintao, raising expectations that a new round of economic liberalization would entail the creation of similar capitalist enclaves. In addition to expanding two zones just north of the demilitarized zone, analysts said, the North might resurrect two dormant ones along its borders with China and Russia.
The one bordering China, in the northwest city of Sinuiju, was made a special economic zone in 2002. But the man North Korea designated as its chief executive officer, a Dutch-Chinese businessman, was arrested by the Chinese authorities for fraud and bribery before the zone could open.
In China, the special zones allowed Beijing to largely confine the side effects of free markets to the southern coast, while maintaining its grip politically. But the social transformations of rapid growth are likely to be felt far more acutely in a smaller country like North Korea, whose leadership has yet to show any hint of political openness.
“The reforms have been done in a halting manner because Kim Jong Il seems to want the benefits of economic reforms but none of the risks,” said Bruce Klingner, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy. “His overriding concern is his regime’s hold on power. In China, Deng Xiaoping had to fight his own senior leadership. He was clearly the driving force behind the economic reforms.”
Economists cite other crucial differences that may curb North Korea’s efforts to pull off Chinese-style market reforms. While China used its large agricultural sector to expand its industrial base, the North’s economy is already largely industrialized, albeit with hulking, Stalinist factories that are all but useless.
Leave a Reply