No doubt it’s salutary to imagine just how bad things might get. Niall Ferguson thinks we’re fooling ourselves if we believe Iran’s theocratic revolution is on its last legs:
What we are witnessing is the old revolutionary story: The generation forged by revolutionary war turns out to be more belligerent than the generation that led the revolution itself. Significantly, Ahmadinejad’s main election backers were the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basiji, the paramilitary popular militias formed during the Iran-Iraq war. Ahmadinejad is himself a war veteran, one of hundreds of thousands of Iranians who came of age under fire.
So where do we go from here? Plan A — the European carrot — has failed. Plan B — the flaccid U.N. stick — will also fail. Is there then a Plan C — American (or Israeli) air strikes?
The answer is yes, but it is a plan fraught with peril.
According to Michael J. Mazarr of the U.S. National War College, Iran could retaliate with “an elaborate, ferocious, global provocation designed to draw the United States into a protracted conflict.” That translates into more terrorism in our cities and an escalation of the war in Iraq.
Now, ask yourself, what would be the likely effect of such a confrontation on Iranian politics?
To repeat: The Iranian revolution is still at an early stage. It has not yet produced its Bonaparte, its Stalin, its Mao. Or has it? A full-scale war with the “Great Satan” may be all Ahmadinejad needs to don that bloody mantle.
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