Turkey and Syria

An interesting article in Lebanon’s Daily Star looks at the current alliance between Syria and Turkey:

How quickly things change in the Middle East. In 1998, Turkey massed troops on its border with Syria to coerce the regime of President Hafez Assad into relinquishing its support for the Syria-based Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). Within days, Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK leader, was forced to leave Damascus and was eventually apprehended in Nairobi by Turkish intelligence officers tipped off by the CIA and the Mossad. Those were the good old days of the Turkish-Israeli-American strategic alliance in the Middle East.

That has changed. Turkey now makes the news because of its growing anti-American and anti-Israel feelings. The flashiest symptoms are the two bestselling books in the country: The first is a novel about a Turkish-American war depicting Washington’s decision to use nuclear weapons. The second is Adolf Hitler’s “Mein Kampf.” In such atmospherics, it is no wonder that Syria and Iran have turned into natural allies. When Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer visited Syria last week, he was hailed as a hero not only by Syrians but also by a Turkish public that admired his willingness to resist American pressure. No one in Turkey seems to remember that Syria is still governed by a regime that supported the PKK. Anti-American solidarity can indeed work wonders.

That Syria and Turkey now see convergent interests in the Middle East is an unexpected result of the war in Iraq. It is also an unpleasant surprise for Washington. Yet there should be nothing startling about Syria’s attempt to forge better ties with Turkey. The regime of President Bashar Assad is facing unprecedented isolation. After being rebuked by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Assad is looking for a sense of legitimacy anywhere he can find it. What seems more astonishing is Turkey’s willingness to play along.

For those confused about Turkish sympathy for Syria, it is important to understand that Turks never truly developed an interest in Arab politics. Turkey’s focus has historically been on the West. The Middle East became relevant for Ankara only in the framework of two issues: Kurdish nationalism and great-power politics. The current malaise in Turkey, reflected by the growing anti-Americanism, is a direct result of these two dynamics interacting in the worst possible way. Almost all Turks believe that current U.S. policies in Iraq will end up creating an independent Kurdish state. Needless to say, this is a nightmare scenario for Turkey.

Although the Turkish government is now trying to warm up to Jalal Talabani’s presidency in Iraq, the sad fact is that Ankara until very recently discounted Talabani and the other powerful Kurdish leader, Massoud Barzani, as “tribal leaders.” So much for a visionary approach in Turkish foreign policy. […]

Turkey and Syria are coming together because of shared concerns about U.S. policy in the region. Still, whether such courtship will turn into a more permanent alliance remains to be seen. After all, Turkey is still an official ally of the U.S. and has embarked on a historic journey into the Europe Union. Ankara has nothing to gain by cozying up to dictators. In contrast, the Assad regime may have already overplayed its hand in the current crisis. Because the stakes for Syria are much higher than what Turkey has to gain, the rupture between Damascus and Ankara might come more rapidly than expected.

Much depends on how the Kurdish question in the region will evolve. Iraq’s Kurds will play a decisive role in this regard. Talabani’s election as president is a sign that the Kurds see their future as part of a new Iraq. If Talabani wants, he could also win over Turkey by clearing northern Iraq of the PKK. This, after all, would be a small price to pay for pleasing a powerful regional state.