em seem like the natural party of government after so long on the opposition benches. Otherwise his record is mixed at best and not obviously about to get better, with more tuition fee battles to come, problems with PFI hospitals, and perhaps worst of all a complete failure to get to grips with transport. The economy’s strong, but credit for that goes to Brown rather than Blair.
But it’ll be foreign policy where he’ll be mainly judged, and I imagine he thinks his record will in years to come be viewed favourably. He was instrumental in persuading Bill Clinton to act against Milosevic, and in the NATO intervention in Kosovo. He sent troops to Sierra Leone in a successful intervention against rebel forces. And finally, Iraq.
Iraq isn’t going to go away for Blair. It’s unlikely that there’ll come a point should he stay on – say in 5 years or so – when the Iraqis will have taken so well to democracy and freedom, and the situation in the Middle East will be so much improved, that his current critics will roll over and admit they were completely wrong. Nor is he ever going to change his mind. However bad things get in Iraq he’ll still be saying, as he did recently, that we should be proud as a country for what we did in Iraq.
But he must be getting to the point now where the game is barely worth the candle. A large proportion of the Labour party dislike him strongly, and despite the fact that he’s undoubtedly tougher than he was, and no longer expects everyone to love him, he still gives the impression, for a politician, of being thin-skinned. He must look at Bill Clinton with envy as he strolls around the celebrity speaking circuit. Or – more plausibly given his strong moral sense – he thinks there may be a role for him somewhat like Jimmy Carter’s, as a kind of roving ambassador.
For Labour generally it would make sense for Blair to go soon (not too soon, in case he’s seen as unable to take the pressure, but nearer the election). The Tories are currently more buoyant under Howard than they have been for years, but unless they tighten up their act it would be relatively easy post-Blair for Labour to burst their balloon, as their policies are all over the place. And after Blair much of the anti-war leakage to the Lib-Dems would reverse (especially if Robin Cook was given a cabinet post, but that would not be a happy outcome for Blair).
It would also make sense in broader terms, in that Blair set up the Labour government with a strong move to the right which was needed to make them electable, but now they’re seen as responsible they need to rally the troops with a touch of the tiller over to the Brown left. With relations with Europe now becoming critical, it also might be seen as a good time for the more sceptical Brown to take over.