morrow Iraq should know if it has acquired a constitution with which it can begin working. If so, then in mid-December an election will be held for a national parliament and there is every reason to believe that turnout then will be at least as high and as admirably broad as it was on Saturday. All of which means that those who supported the Anglo-US intervention can start to be less defensive.
Some awful mistakes were made and they have been conceded. Neither Britain nor the United States knew enough about Saddam Hussein’s inconsistent, incoherent, pursuit of weapons of mass destruction to support the scale of claims they made in the months preceding conflict. The decision to disband the Iraqi Army and police once the Baathist regime fell was foolish, if perhaps more understandable than critics are prepared to acknowledge.
The extent to which religious extremism had permeated parts of Shia and Sunni Iraq before March 2003, when the tanks rumbled over the border with Kuwait, was badly underestimated. Numerous matters could have been addressed much more shrewdly and this would have led to a far better security situation.
Nothing in this lengthy confessional should, though, negate the fact that there are many positive aspects to this story. One such is the character of the political and constitutional dialogue in Iraq, as is the rapid development of a free and crusading media and the steady recovery of the economy.
It may take until 2010 before all this bears fruit — longer that many of us hoped and thought at the time the old dictatorship was toppled. Yet, what would Iraq have been destined for in 2010 if Saddam were still in his palaces instead of in a prison awaiting the start of his trial this week, or if he had keeled over to pass on tips to Old Nick, leaving one or other of his sadistic sons in charge of that country?
The real divide over Iraq is not what it was almost three years ago. It is no longer “war versus peace” (a funny sort of “peace”, as the Kurds and Shias could ruefully testify) but “what about the democracy?” versus “so what about the democracy?”