sion:
I am not arguing in this lecture for sanguinity about either nuclear risks or Vladimir Putin’s mental state. I am arguing against allowing our analysis of one of the most difficult and fateful conflicts we have seen in Europe for almost 80 years to be overly influenced by our worst fears and simplistic theories about how they might be realised. Hard strategic assessments of the state of the war may lead to awkward conclusions but we have not helped ourselves, let alone Ukraine, by opting for an approach which has results in demands that Ukraine accept a bad peace and caution in providing it with the weapons it needs to achieve a better peace.
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