more than any other Arab country, the urban middle classes are more natural allies for the United States than is the military-business elite in power since 1952.
By taking the lead for democratic reform, Mubarak may be trying to preserve the elite’s position in a new political context.
Nevertheless, while American pressure certainly did play a role, it would be wrong to ignore other factors that might have contributed to Mubarak’s historic decision. The first such factor is growing opposition to the present system within Egypt itself. For the past year or so Cairo has been the scene of almost daily peaceful demonstrations, by people from all walks of life, calling for free elections.
In the past few weeks there have also been demonstrations in a number of other Egyptian cities with a one-word slogan Kafa! (Enough!), shouted by thousands of people and scribbled on numerous walls. The demonstrators have been encouraged by the belief that the authorities would not be able to order a crackdown in the face of opposition from Washington and its coalition allies.
The second factor that might have persuaded Mubarak to embrace reform is the change of mood in the Greater Middle East.
With the failure of pan-Arabism and various ideologies, including variants of the Left, the region is now discovering democracy as the one big idea that could help it out of the historic impasse.
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