In Defence of Mistakes

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Daniel Finkelstein in the Times on why Frank Ellis should be defended:

On Sunday, a group of academics wrote to a newspaper complaining about the disciplinary proceedings instituted by the university against one of its lecturers, Frank Ellis. Dr Ellis has been suspended for arguing that racial groups have different average IQ levels, and that those of blacks are inferior to whites. His defenders protested that some evidence suggested he was correct.

Yet the academics who suspended Dr Ellis and those who defended him are making an error. In fact, the identical error. They are confusing the correctness of Dr Ellis’s views with whether he should be allowed to continue his academic career. These are not the same thing at all.

In the autumn of 1906, as recorded by James Surowiecki in his excellent book The Wisdom of Crowds, the scientist Francis Galton visited the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition. While there he found his eyes drawn to a guess-the-weight-of-an-ox competition. Butchers and farmers were taking part, but so were ordinary visitors without any expert knowledge. Galton was interested in how bad their guesses would prove to be.

Galton was to be surprised. The average of the 800 guesses during the day was almost exactly right and, crucially, much more accurate than any individual expert assessment. What he had discovered was something counter-intuitive — that even the wildest incorrect guess plays its role in helping to produce an accurate average guess.

Dr Ellis is a lecturer in Russian and Slavic Studies. He probably has as firm a grip on the study of IQ and ethnicity as he does on the study of ox-weighing. But his view is useful in both, regardless of its correctness. Allowing mistaken views to have a voice in the academy is a vital part of determining the truth.

Comments

  1. Anne Avatar
    Anne

    Yes, Mick, I largely agree. But as a woman, i’m not sure I’d like him to single-mark any of my work. I can just see the (no doubt unconscious) thought processes in his mind: female student=lower intelligence=mediocre essay.

  2. chris Avatar

    Finkelstein is confusing two separate ideas here.
    For the ox-weighing analogy to work, estimates of the weight must be unbiased, so that over-estimates are as likely as under-estimates.
    But in the case of racial differences in intelligence, there is a systematic bias – white racists think blacks are less intelligent, non-racists think there’s nothing in it, whilst hardly anyone (at least in England) thinks blacks are more intelligent.
    Taking the average of all opinion therefore gives us the view that blacks are less intelligent – which is gibberish.
    The way in which Ellis’s views lead us to the truth isn’t through a “wisdom of crowds” mechanism, but – hopefully – because he’ll spur non-racists into combatting his views and promulgating the truth. This, I gues, is what Mill had in mind.

  3. P. Froward Avatar

    How about the wisdom of the crowds back in the ’90s who “invested” in risible internet startups with hallucinatory business plans?
    There are cases where there’s a positive feedback or echo chamber effect, and the people in the crowd all stampede together to the same idiotic outlier [1]. I suggest that crowds aggregate stupidity more often than intelligence. [2]
    Of course, you also get things like the anti-Syrian demonstrations in Lebanon last year, where the crowd gets it right (well, I think they did).
    Maybe, over the broad sweep of time, if you average out all the tulip speculation with all the Orange Revolutions, it comes out about even. But looking at history, I’d say we’re dangerously stupid far more often than not. The problem with this pollyanna-ish arch-libertarian faith in stuff like the wisdom of crowds, is the same as the problem with communism or any other quick fix for history: If it were that easy to get it right, how come every culture on Earth has spent the last 50,000 years getting it comprehensively wrong in such a dazzling variety of ways?
    [1] http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/051788433X/104-0550134-9579161?v=glance&n=283155
    [2] http://www.despair.com/meetings.html

  4. Mick H Avatar
    Mick H

    Chris – you’re being a bit too literal, surely. He’s not saying we should take Ellis’s views into account when we decide about whether blacks are more or less intelligent than whites or Asians, merely that we need the full range of opinions in order to arrive at the truth, and if we censor some unwelcome voices, we may be losing out overall – a more general point.

  5. DaninVan Avatar

    ?! I thought the topic here was whether Ellis should be disciplined for his views, not on whether there’s any validity to them.
    His perspective is hardly groundbreaking. Careers have been built on social engineering solutions to the ‘problem’ he’s been stating.

  6. PGP Avatar

    A study and a resulting opinion may be correct or make errors.
    What the hell does that have to do with the value of the person making the study or the observiations?
    Don’t bither straining your brain because the answer is NOTHING?
    This is a case of the foolish entrapment of officials by the ideology of political correctness. It is WRONG it is False and Self Serving.
    It is BS!
    That’s why anyone who gives a damn about honesty and integrity and personal freedom needs to speak out against this kind of herd mentality at institutions.

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